[colug-432] Overheard a few days ago in a library dedicated to Frank Lloyd Wright

Steve Roggenkamp roggenkamps at acm.org
Sun Dec 12 15:52:30 EST 2010

I've subscribed to the aspo-usa weekly newsletter for several years.   
See http://www.aspo-usa.com for details and much information.

Yes, the idea of peak oil is disturbing.

More disturbing is the lack of discussion from our political leaders.  
We keep hearing the message about "green energy", but we don't hear why 
we need to switch to green energy sources.  I think many of our 
political and corporate leaders understand the magnitude of the issue, 
but are afraid of the backlash should it become well known and discussed.

Several events lead me to believe peak oil is or will be occurring shortly:

1.  Why do we have to drill wells in 5000+ feet of water?  A: That's 
where the best remaining oil reservoirs are located.  We've drilled all 
of the "easy" oil.

2. Why didn't the Saudis increase production during 2007-2008 when crude 
oil was selling for $125-150/bbl, despite the pleading/cajoling from the 
Bush administration?  A:  Could it be they were already near their 
maximum oil production capacity?  Or were they wanting to save their 
remaining oil for their children?

3.  The International Energy Agency dramatically revised downward their 
maximum oil production capacity estimate from about 106 mbbl/day in 2030 
to about 99 mbbl/day 2035 in just a year.  Right now we're consuming 
about 88 mbbl/day.  This seems to be a huge shift in just a year.

One effect will be to dramatically increase energy prices for everyone.  
Think about what a shift to electric cars will do to the price of 
electricity to run our data centers.  Right now there are many efforts 
afoot to increase data center power efficiencies by reducing energy used 
to cool the equipment inside data centers.  Another is the push towards 
virtual servers, allowing us to increase the amount of work 
(transactions, computations, etc.) from a given piece of equipment in 
the right context.

We ARE living in interesting times.


Travis Sidelinger wrote:
> Has anyone on the Colug list been researching "Peak Oil"?  I'm finding
> some very disturbing information.
> ~Travis
> _______________________________________________
> colug-432 mailing list
> colug-432 at colug.net
> http://lists.colug.net/mailman/listinfo/colug-432
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