Since our regular Colug meetings have basically ceased, maybe we get back on the same schedule and meet about Peak related topics?<br><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Dec 13, 2010 at 3:14 PM, Travis Sidelinger <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:travissidelinger@gmail.com">travissidelinger@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">On Mon, Dec 13, 2010 at 12:57 PM, Joshua Kramer <<a href="mailto:josh@globalherald.net">josh@globalherald.net</a>> wrote:<br>
><br>
> Continuing the discussion from the list.<br>
><br>
> "That last figure I've seen is that the cost to convert algae to diesel<br>
> is about 50$ / gallon. That's pretty far from the current $3.25/gal.<br>
> You'll need massive amounts of water and fertilizer. Solar and Wind<br>
> are already here and in mass production. We just won't be able to<br>
> zoom zoom our SUV's around in the future."<br>
><br>
> The *last* time I researched this back in 2008 the price/gallon for algae<br>
> biodiesel was estimated to be around $5. After reading what you wrote I did<br>
> a quick Google search and found studies that pegged it more like<br>
> $18-$40/gallon. I'm guessing that folks have done much more research in the<br>
> past few years to more accurately peg the number.<br>
<br>
Can you share some of those links? Also, what is the net energy equation?<br>
<br>
><br>
> But keep in mind that wind/solar and biodiesel are two totally and<br>
> completely different animals. We should not focus on one at the exclusion<br>
> of the others.<br>
><br>
> "Yes, I'm panicking too. I could have as little as a year to get solar<br>
> cells installed and learn to garden."<br>
><br>
> If the crap hits the fan as badly as you've surmised in previous posts on<br>
> this thread, solar cells and gardening will be the *least* of your worries.<br>
> What do you plan to do about the gangs of roving thieves?<br>
<br>
Yes I know. People have been known to do dispirit things for<br>
survival. Some people may think this is too far fetch or that we are<br>
too civilized for things to come to that. I hope they are right, but<br>
I suggest planning for a range of possible outcomes. Bullets are<br>
currently a cheap investment.<br>
<br>
><br>
> If it really gets that bad - I'm guessing we'll enter some kind of dystopian<br>
> future that is a mix of the new technology we can support without petrol,<br>
> and the 1800's. Personally I'd have no issue with going back to the 1800's.<br>
> The problem is that the population level that we can support using 1800's<br>
> technology is far less than the population we can support using 2010<br>
> technology. Those who are not prepared in *all* areas will have a bleak and<br>
> uncertain future. I do not intend to be in this bleak and uncertain group.<br>
<br>
Maybe they can eat the leather in their SUV's<br>
<br>
><br>
> Looks like I have to start hoarding ammo again... :) And learn some skills<br>
> that are applicable using technology from any era... like fabrication,<br>
> mechanical design, maybe blacksmithing or gunsmithing... and gardening...<br>
> and animal husbandry...<br>
<br>
Except for most people there are just too many things that you need to<br>
know and be good at. Communities are key.<br>
<br>
><br>
> The people who get really deep in this have it all planned out. How they'll<br>
> eat or grow food, how they'll defend themselves, the best location to live<br>
> (in order to ensure a good water and food supply, and reduce the chances of<br>
> roving thieves), what kinds of people to associate with (it's recommended to<br>
> join a church and, if you aren't religious, pretend you are), those kinds of<br>
> things. There are sociological and psychological problems you have to<br>
> navigate in addition to the technical problems with this kind of occurrence.<br>
> The link I noted at Life After The Oil Crash has a lot of resources for<br>
> this...<br>
<br>
Yes, it will take strong communities if we are to survival.<br>
<br>
People need to consider all the possibilities and plan accordantly:<br>
<br>
Here are some possibilities I've come up with:<br>
<br>
* Oil is unlimited and we keep growing exponentially -> Current<br>
facts are not on this side. This is simply a fantasy.<br>
<br>
* Oil is limited, but with technology we will be able to keep our<br>
status quo for another 20 years -> Problem is that the technology<br>
already needs to be in massive production today. We needed to start<br>
this 15yrs ago.<br>
<br>
* Oil production remains flat until 2015 as prices rise because of<br>
India and China, but people act quickly to switch to renewable energy<br>
solutions -> Making this switch will not be easy. Experts have<br>
calculated that we will need 2000 times the number of solar cells.<br>
Lets get building....<br>
<br>
* Oil production remains flat until 2015 and then starts a 3%<br>
decline, prices rise, but economic output (GDP) is held down, people<br>
slowly switch to renewables, but GDP reduces significantly until it<br>
equalizes with renewable energy production and remaining oil/gas<br>
production at a much lower level -> hopefully I can hang onto my job<br>
why this all happens. There are many different tipping points that<br>
could cause our system(s) to simply fall into chaos while this<br>
happens.<br>
<br>
* Oil production remains flat or in decline causing prices to rise<br>
and then causing another (or consecutive) recessions, our level of<br>
nation debt then causes the dollar to fault, but the government acts<br>
quickly to secure food production and quell civil unrest -> Scary,<br>
but quite possible.<br>
<br>
* Oil production remains flat or decline causing prices to rise and<br>
then causing another or consecutive recessions, our level of nation<br>
debt then causes the dollar to fault leading to complete chaos (better<br>
known as Mad Max). -> Very scary and quite possible too.<br>
<br>
* It is also possible that different areas within the US will have<br>
completely different outcomes, thus any combination of the about<br>
outcomes.<br>
<br>
I think the most probably outcome (with current information) is that<br>
we will continue at current levels for at least another year or two as<br>
oil prices slowly rise. Eventually oil prices will cause a second<br>
recession. US debt and credit markets will be in really bad shape by<br>
then and we could see the dollar collapse. I'm hoping government will<br>
step in and secure food production. Though I'd expect mileage will<br>
very with different areas of the nation. Some will be in complete<br>
chaos, yet others will have formed strong communities. Keep in mind<br>
that our current food systems supports 300+ mil people (plus exports<br>
too), thus reductions in those systems may result in a reduction to<br>
population before things can equalize again. I'd expect the major<br>
cites will be the worst off as they are furthest from food production<br>
and contain the highest population densities.<br>
<br>
Hopefully I'm wrong, but people just seem to be in complete denial,<br>
which can only make this even worse.<br>
<br>
It's amazing how there was a lot of talk about this two years, but<br>
when oil prices dropped off during the peak of the recession people<br>
just went back to their normal habits.<br>
<br>
~Travis<br>
<br>
><br>
><br>
> --<br>
> JK<br>
><br>
><br>
<br>
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