[colug-432] Peak Oil

[travissidelinger at gmail.com]

You have my support.

On Dec 13, 2010 3:57pm, Mike Haun <haun.mike at gmail.com> wrote:
> Since our regular Colug meetings have basically ceased, maybe we get back  
> on the same schedule and meet about Peak related topics?


> On Mon, Dec 13, 2010 at 3:14 PM, Travis Sidelinger  
> travissidelinger at gmail.com> wrote:


> On Mon, Dec 13, 2010 at 12:57 PM, Joshua Kramer josh at globalherald.net>  
> wrote:



> >

> > Continuing the discussion from the list.

> >

> > "That last figure I've seen is that the cost to convert algae to diesel

> > is about 50$ / gallon. That's pretty far from the current $3.25/gal.

> > You'll need massive amounts of water and fertilizer. Solar and Wind

> > are already here and in mass production. We just won't be able to

> > zoom zoom our SUV's around in the future."

> >

> > The *last* time I researched this back in 2008 the price/gallon for  
> algae

> > biodiesel was estimated to be around $5. After reading what you wrote I  
> did

> > a quick Google search and found studies that pegged it more like

> > $18-$40/gallon. I'm guessing that folks have done much more research in  
> the

> > past few years to more accurately peg the number.



> Can you share some of those links? Also, what is the net energy equation?



> >

> > But keep in mind that wind/solar and biodiesel are two totally and

> > completely different animals. We should not focus on one at the  
> exclusion

> > of the others.

> >

> > "Yes, I'm panicking too. I could have as little as a year to get solar

> > cells installed and learn to garden."

> >

> > If the crap hits the fan as badly as you've surmised in previous posts  
> on

> > this thread, solar cells and gardening will be the *least* of your  
> worries.

> > What do you plan to do about the gangs of roving thieves?



> Yes I know. People have been known to do dispirit things for

> survival. Some people may think this is too far fetch or that we are

> too civilized for things to come to that. I hope they are right, but

> I suggest planning for a range of possible outcomes. Bullets are

> currently a cheap investment.



> >

> > If it really gets that bad - I'm guessing we'll enter some kind of  
> dystopian

> > future that is a mix of the new technology we can support without  
> petrol,

> > and the 1800's. Personally I'd have no issue with going back to the  
> 1800's.

> > The problem is that the population level that we can support using  
> 1800's

> > technology is far less than the population we can support using 2010

> > technology. Those who are not prepared in *all* areas will have a bleak  
> and

> > uncertain future. I do not intend to be in this bleak and uncertain  
> group.



> Maybe they can eat the leather in their SUV's



> >

> > Looks like I have to start hoarding ammo again... :) And learn some  
> skills

> > that are applicable using technology from any era... like fabrication,

> > mechanical design, maybe blacksmithing or gunsmithing... and  
> gardening...

> > and animal husbandry...



> Except for most people there are just too many things that you need to

> know and be good at. Communities are key.



> >

> > The people who get really deep in this have it all planned out. How  
> they'll

> > eat or grow food, how they'll defend themselves, the best location to  
> live

> > (in order to ensure a good water and food supply, and reduce the  
> chances of

> > roving thieves), what kinds of people to associate with (it's  
> recommended to

> > join a church and, if you aren't religious, pretend you are), those  
> kinds of

> > things. There are sociological and psychological problems you have to

> > navigate in addition to the technical problems with this kind of  
> occurrence.

> > The link I noted at Life After The Oil Crash has a lot of resources for

> > this...



> Yes, it will take strong communities if we are to survival.



> People need to consider all the possibilities and plan accordantly:



> Here are some possibilities I've come up with:



> * Oil is unlimited and we keep growing exponentially -> Current

> facts are not on this side. This is simply a fantasy.



> * Oil is limited, but with technology we will be able to keep our

> status quo for another 20 years -> Problem is that the technology

> already needs to be in massive production today. We needed to start

> this 15yrs ago.



> * Oil production remains flat until 2015 as prices rise because of

> India and China, but people act quickly to switch to renewable energy

> solutions -> Making this switch will not be easy. Experts have

> calculated that we will need 2000 times the number of solar cells.

> Lets get building....



> * Oil production remains flat until 2015 and then starts a 3%

> decline, prices rise, but economic output (GDP) is held down, people

> slowly switch to renewables, but GDP reduces significantly until it

> equalizes with renewable energy production and remaining oil/gas

> production at a much lower level -> hopefully I can hang onto my job

> why this all happens. There are many different tipping points that

> could cause our system(s) to simply fall into chaos while this

> happens.



> * Oil production remains flat or in decline causing prices to rise

> and then causing another (or consecutive) recessions, our level of

> nation debt then causes the dollar to fault, but the government acts

> quickly to secure food production and quell civil unrest -> Scary,

> but quite possible.



> * Oil production remains flat or decline causing prices to rise and

> then causing another or consecutive recessions, our level of nation

> debt then causes the dollar to fault leading to complete chaos (better

> known as Mad Max). -> Very scary and quite possible too.



> * It is also possible that different areas within the US will have

> completely different outcomes, thus any combination of the about

> outcomes.



> I think the most probably outcome (with current information) is that

> we will continue at current levels for at least another year or two as

> oil prices slowly rise. Eventually oil prices will cause a second

> recession. US debt and credit markets will be in really bad shape by

> then and we could see the dollar collapse. I'm hoping government will

> step in and secure food production. Though I'd expect mileage will

> very with different areas of the nation. Some will be in complete

> chaos, yet others will have formed strong communities. Keep in mind

> that our current food systems supports 300+ mil people (plus exports

> too), thus reductions in those systems may result in a reduction to

> population before things can equalize again. I'd expect the major

> cites will be the worst off as they are furthest from food production

> and contain the highest population densities.



> Hopefully I'm wrong, but people just seem to be in complete denial,

> which can only make this even worse.



> It's amazing how there was a lot of talk about this two years, but

> when oil prices dropped off during the peak of the recession people

> just went back to their normal habits.



> ~Travis



> >

> >

> > --

> > JK

> >

> >



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